Deep into the regular season, the Winnipeg Jets are flying high, jostling for the Presidents Trophy. No team can reach this level of success without a lot of things going well, and the Jets are no different. GM Kevin Cheveldayoff has been patient in building up his roster over the years, giving his players time to build chemistry and confidence. 

While several of the Jets players fit the bill, there might be no greater illustration of Cheveldayoff’s patience paying off than the progression of Dylan Samberg. A left shot defenceman, Samberg is having a true breakout season at 26-years-old, becoming a bonafide top-four option for the Jets. Let’s take a deeper look at what Samberg brings to the ice. 

Samberg’s early development

The Jets selected Samberg in the second round of the 2017 draft. At the time his positive was the combination of his size and skating. At 6’3”, now listed an inch taller, the raw ingredients were evident. He was a bit raw, listed 67th for North American skaters in his draft year, and with only six games experience in the USHL. There was not a lot of offensive production, and some concerns around his puck handling and passing limited excitement around Samberg. 

Funnily enough, Samberg would join the University of Minnesota-Duluth the season after current Jets teammate Neal Pionk left the program. His offensive totals picked up through his college career, where he spent three seasons. This steady progression continued as a professional, spending a season and a half in the AHL before earning an NHL audition in 2021–22. Along the way, Samberg featured at the U20 World Juniors for team USA, thriving in the spotlight for his sound and smart defensive play. 

His growth in the NHL growth

His first full NHL season was 2022–23, where Samberg  was typecast as a third pairing defender. With just eight points in 63 games, the then 24-year-old was probably not top of mind as a potential core member of the team. On the other hand, Samberg immediately became an analytics darling, showing fantastic results in stats like expected goals percentage. The icetime was fairly limited, but Samberg showed  some promise. 

His size, skating, and sound defensive game seemed to translate well into the NHL. Samberg found success with both Dylan Demelo and Nate Schmidt in the first season, another encouraging sign. Demelo, a more defensive player, and Schmidt, more of an offensive player, showed that Samberg is well rounded enough to contribute with different styles of players. 

In Samberg’s second full season these themes continued. Samberg was able to increase his offensive production, but remained typecast into a deep third pairing role. His icetime increased modestly, reaching an average of just under 15 minutes per game. Still, his advanced stats showed a lot of promise, reprising his success alongside Schmidt. 

This season’s success

Finally, Samberg was able to parlay his modest NHL success into a bigger role. His icetime has skyrocketed recently, as Samberg is playing well over 20 minutes per game at this point. Samberg anchors the Jets second pairing and the leading role on their penalty kill. His size and skating allows him to cover a lot of ice and handle any players the opposition has to offer. Though not a punishing physical presence, Samberg is able to clog the middle of the ice and box out opponents in contested areas. 

While the defensive traits were always evident, the try turning point has been Samberg’s play with the puck. His confidence, as well as his production, is growing. While he will not be a power play option or an elite producer, his passing and decision making has continued to improve since being drafted. Samberg received a clear vote of confidence in this area, as the Jets acquired Luke Schenn as a defence partner for him. 

Schenn is a limited player, with clear strengths and weaknesses. Schenn requires a partner who can handle most of the puck moving responsibilities to be effective. Samberg’s game with the puck has evolved to the point where he can lead a pairing on both sides of the puck.

Next steps for Samberg and the Jets

Though the Jets have had a fantastic regular season it is difficult to separate them from their recent playoff performances. Internal development from players like Samberg will be huge for the Jets chances at reversing their fortunes this time around. Defencemen, especially defensive defencemen, take up more of the limelight come playoff time. This will provide Samberg with the stage to gain some more credit from the general public. 

Samberg will be an RFA this offseason, and will have arbitration rights as well. The Jets have a lot of cap space, and GM Cheveldayoff has done well to keep his core players on team friendly deals. With the salary cap rising significantly over the next three seasons, player salaries will rise as well. 

Due to Samberg’s modest offensive output his next contract will be lower than one might think for a player of his importance. The Jets have had a front row seat to his consistent development, and there is still room for more from Samberg, especially on the offensive side of things. It seems likely that Samberg’s best hockey is still ahead of him. 

There should be sufficient motivation for the Jets to sign Samberg to a long term deal, and reason to believe that his cap hit might approach that of Josh Morrissey. If the Jets are able to re-sign Samberg to anything less than Morrissey’s $6.25M cap hit it will be a great deal for the team.